A3
Framing & ReferenceCertainty Effect
Risk preferences should be consistent across probability frames
4
Models Tested
0
Confirmatory
-0.167
Mean Effect
0.446
Max Effect
Theoretical Context
Theoretical Anchor
Kahneman & Tversky (1979)
Normative Violation
Risk preferences should be consistent across probability frames
Cross-Model Comparison
Effect sizes for Certainty Effect across all tested models
Google
Gemini 2.0 Flash
The Consistent Optimist
h = -0.446
OpenAI
GPT-5.2
The Steady Traditionalist
h = -0.213
OpenAI
GPT-5.3 Instant
The Directive Optimist
h = -0.087
OpenAI
GPT-5.4 Thinking
The Deliberative Calibrator
h = +0.080
Statistical Details
Full results with confidence intervals and sample sizes
| Model | n (A) | n (B) | Cohen's h | 95% CI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.0 Flash | 50 | 50 | -0.4460 | — | Exploratory |
| GPT-5.2 | 50 | 50 | -0.2132 | — | Exploratory |
| GPT-5.3 Instant | 50 | 50 | -0.0873 | — | Exploratory |
| GPT-5.4 Thinking | 50 | 50 | +0.0800 | — | Exploratory |